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DTSTART:20251102T020000
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UID:calendar.1911.events_uoft_date.0@www.psych.utoronto.ca
CREATED:20251119T165220Z
DESCRIPTION:\nWhen and Where: \nFriday, November 28, 2025 12:00 pm to 1:3
 0 pm \n SS2127 \n Sidney Smith Hall \n 100 St. George Street \n\nSpeakers 
 \nPovilas Karvelis, PhD (Cognemo Lab, PI Andreea Diaconescu) \n\nDescrip
 tion: \nA lot of fMRI work is ultimately motivated by the hope of improvin
 g real-world outcomes in mental health and related areas. Yet, despite th
 ousands of statistically significant findings, we still have very few bio
 markers or prediction models that are useful at the individual level. One 
 reason is that our analyses are optimized for statistical significance (p-
 values), not for practical significance (effect sizes). We simply lack pr
 incipled ways to interpret effect sizes. In this talk, I will introduce p
 redictive utility analysis as a way to interpret effect sizes in terms of 
 their real-world predictive value. To illustrate this approach, I will us
 e E2P Simulator (www.e2p-simulator.com), an open-source interactive web t
 ool that we recently developed for this purpose. E2P Simulator converts fa
 miliar effect-size metrics (e.g., Cohen’s d, Pearson’s r) into discrimin
 ative ability (ROC-AUC, sensitivity, specificity), predictive value (PP
 V, NPV, PR-AUC), and clinical utility metrics (Net Benefit), while exp
 licitly accounting for measurement reliability and base rates (e.g., prev
 alence, event rates). Using concrete examples from psychiatry and neuroim
 aging, I will illustrate how this framework helps judge when an observed 
 effect has a realistic path to real-world translation. About ToNI Users Me
 etingsThe bi-weekly ToNI Users Meeting forms the core of our community of 
 practice — a friendly, open forum for everyone conducting MRI research at
  ToNI. In an informal, seminar-style format led by trainees from across d
 epartments, users present new project ideas, discuss methodological ques
 tions, share results, or highlight new trends in neuroimaging. Faculty e
 xperts and the MR Physicist join regularly to provide scientific and techn
 ical input, fostering constructive exchange and collaborative problem-sol
 ving. The goal: to help users help each other, building shared knowledge 
 and ensuring the best possible data and outcomes from every ToNI study. \n
 100 St. George Street \n\nCategories \n ToNI Users Meeting \n\nAudiences 
 \n All
DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20251128T120000
DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20251128T133000
LAST-MODIFIED:20251119T165529Z
LOCATION:100 St. George Street
SUMMARY:Going beyond statistical significance: Understanding effect sizes i
 n terms of their predictive utility
URL;TYPE=URI:https://www.psych.utoronto.ca/events/going-beyond-statistical-
 significance-understanding-effect-sizes-terms-their-predictive
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